Analysis: Why Pakistan and the Taliban won’t find it easy to patch up
Key Takeaways
- Afghanistan-Pakistan relations have severely deteriorated, culminating in Pakistani airforce strikes on Kabul targets.
- Pakistan initially supported the Taliban's return in 2021, expecting a friendly government that would curb security threats.
- Pakistan faces a national security crisis due to a surge in attacks by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), whose leaders are based in Afghanistan.
- The Taliban government insists the TTP is a domestic issue for Pakistan, and prior mediation talks have collapsed.
- Pakistan's Afghan policy is driven by its powerful security establishment, including the army and the ISI.
The relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban-led Afghanistan has spiraled downwards, shattering initial Pakistani hopes that the Taliban's 2021 return would secure its borders against security threats, given Pakistan's history of supporting the movement. This shift is evidenced by the Pakistani airforce striking targets in Kabul for the first time ever this week, signaling a breakdown in mutual expectations. Pakistan blames the surge in domestic militant attacks, which have caused thousands of casualties since 2021, primarily on the TTP, whose leadership resides in Afghanistan. Despite Pakistan's hopes, the TTP's demands for localized Islamic law and autonomy in tribal areas remain unaddressed, creating a national security crisis for Islamabad. The Taliban government insists the TTP is Pakistan's domestic problem, and previous mediation efforts in 2022 ultimately collapsed. Meanwhile, the isolated Taliban regime in Afghanistan faces severe economic collapse, with Russia being the only nation to formally recognize its rule.
