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Box Office: Taylor Swift’s ‘Release Party of a Showgirl’ Reigns With $15.8 Million Opening Day, Dwayne Johnson’s ‘Smashing Machine’ Tenses Up in Third

J. Kim Murphy, J. Kim Murphy
October 4, 2025 at 04:57 PM
Surprise (70%)
mixed
Box Office: Taylor Swift’s ‘Release Party of a Showgirl’ Reigns With $15.8 Million Opening Day, Dwayne Johnson’s ‘Smashing Machine’ Tenses Up in Third

Key Takeaways

  • Taylor Swift's limited-run concert release, 'The Official Release Party of a Show Girl,' is dominating the box office with a strong Friday gross of $15.8 million.
  • Dwayne Johnson's drama, 'The Smashing Machine,' is significantly underperforming expectations, potentially leading to his lowest opening weekend as a lead actor.
  • Swift's release received a superlative 'A+' audience grade, while 'The Smashing Machine' received a lukewarm 'B-,' indicating a clear audience preference.
  • 'The Official Release Party of a Show Girl' is a unique, short-run event timed to promote Swift's new album, utilizing targeted promotion within the fan base.
  • 'One Battle After Another' is holding well due to strong word-of-mouth and awards hype, despite being overshadowed by the new releases.

The October box office is currently defined by the overwhelming success of Taylor Swift's 'The Official Release Party of a Show Girl,' which earned $15.8 million on Friday and is projected for a $25M-$30M opening weekend despite its limited three-day run. This unique release, which packages music videos and behind-the-scenes footage, received a superlative 'A+' audience grade from Cinema Score. Conversely, Dwayne Johnson's drama 'The Smashing Machine,' positioned as the main new release, is struggling, earning only about $2.6 million across Friday and previews, and is projected for a low opening that could mark a career low for Johnson. The film's muted performance contrasts with its high $50 million budget and positive festival reception, likely due to a lukewarm 'B-' audience score. Holding steady in the mix is Warner Bros.' 'One Battle After Another,' which is demonstrating good word-of-mouth and strong holds, though it still faces a long road to profitability given its massive budget. The overall weekend shows a clear preference for event-based, fan-driven cinema over traditional dramatic releases.

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