Lack of data on government shutdown blurs US economy insights
Key Takeaways
- The crucial monthly US jobs report for September was not released due to a government shutdown.
- The interruption in key economic data is occurring at a time of economic uncertainty for policymakers and investors.
- In the absence of official data, private estimates like ADP's suggest a significant decline in hiring momentum.
- Political blame for the shutdown is being exchanged between the Trump administration and Senate Democrats.
- Alternative data sources, including ADP and Goldman Sachs estimates, point toward a low-hire economy with little immediate evidence of mass layoffs.
The first Friday of the month saw the customary hush around the release of the Labor Department’s crucial monthly jobs report fall silent as a government shutdown prevented the release of September hiring data. This lack of information is particularly problematic now, as policymakers and investors are navigating an uncertain economy where hiring seems to be stalling, yet consumer spending persists. The administration blamed Senate Democrats for the shutdown, while Democrats pointed fingers at the White House, highlighting the political tension surrounding the data blackout. Economists are currently turning to alternative data sources, such as ADP's report indicating a surprising loss of private-sector jobs last month, suggesting a low-hire economy. Furthermore, the weekly unemployment claims data is also unavailable, though Goldman Sachs estimated a slight rise in claims based on state-provided figures. The situation mirrors the 2013 shutdown, marking the first time the report has been delayed since then, leaving key economic actors 'flying blind.'
